Scenario planning allows organizations to explore the world in which they operate. Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a method used in the strategic planning process to help businesses make flexible longterm plans. Scenario analysis can help establish indicators that create a framework to monitor the execution of a strategy. Scenario planning starbucks ppt free download as powerpoint presentation. Many organizations conduct offsite scenario planning workshops as part their annual strategy. Decisionmakers then scan the external environment for the agreed indicators that the country or region is beginning to move toward a different scenario or to a different stage along a scenario path. Teams are formed, an organization is selected, and a list of strategy questions is prepared and narrowed to each teams overriding big question. An innovative approach to strategy development authorpresenter. The number of possible futures seems greater than ever, too. Swot and pestel are analytical tools that help identify the key external and internal factors that should be taken into account in order to achieve success in a project or initiative.
A read is counted each time someone views a publication summary such as the title, abstract, and list of authors, clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the fulltext. While several different approaches to scenario planning have emerged since then, this article focuses specifically on the oxford scenario planning approach. After i had listened to his presentation of a set of six scenarios, he asked me what i thought. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. But newbox thinking is relevant to scenarios in a more fundamental way. Scenario planning framework and success factors ross dawson. Previous scenario planning was taking international market as their playing field. For example, using scenario planning, financialservices provider mondex international determined that the advent. Strategic planning at united parcel service case solution.
Among the many tools a manager can use for strategic planning, scenario. Few companies today would say they are happy with the way they plan for an increasingly fluid and turbulent business environment. We were familiar with the late herman kahns scenario approach and were intrigued hy its possihilities for corporate planning. It can help redefine scenario planning for our more turbulent world. Generating insights by creating a small set of scenarios for an organizations future environment that are. This perceived ease and en thusiasm are a blessing and a curse. The future seems to get here a whole lot faster these days. As wack noted,3,4 scenario planning and forecasting are as different as judo and boxing.
Among the many tools a manager can use for strategic planning, scenario planning stands out for its ability to capture a range of possibilities in rich detail. After reading the three books about scenario planning scenario planning. From a global perspective, upss was performing scenario planning in order to cater foreign competitors and to make their delivery system more effective and. Scenarios that merely quantify alternative outcomes of obvious uncertainties never inspire a. Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain valuebased health. Category general applicability applicability for shock and resilience testing predictive scenarios deals with foreseeable challenges e. Its value lies in how scenarios are embedded inand provide vital links. In short, it is a perfect tool for todays increasingly uncertain and volatile world. Requiring heavy detail early on is unproductive, leading to unnecessary iterations and number crunching. Using scenario planning to reshape strategy hbr store.
Tool for strategic thinking case analysis, scenario planning. Below are summaries of the key points in the overview page. A tool for strategic thinking harvard case study solution and hbr and hbs case analysis. When scenario planning has worked well, it has proved enormously useful to a wide range of organizations as a tool for making decisions under uncertainty. Tool for strategic thinking case study solution, among the many tools a manager can use for strategic planning, scenario planning stands out for its ability to capture a range of opportunities in rich det. As always, integrate scenario analysis and a disciplined tracking system into your strategic planning process to test for robustness and provide early detection of coming disruptions. The product of scenario planning is a set of stories describing a range of futures focused on the strategic issues facing a company.
A note on scenario planning background note harvard. Two bain researchers reported in 2007 that the firms regular survey of management tools showed an abrupt and sustained surge in the use of scenario planning after 911 a growing focus. In simple terms, a scenario is an internally consistent account of how the business environment, the external environment, in which an organisation operates might develop and change over time. Scenarios are hypotheses of alternative futures designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in strategic issues and assess strategic decisions 8. Scenario planning came to prominence following world war ii and gained recognition in the corporate world in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Participants in a scenario planning exercise first conduct research to understand the major forces that might move the world in different directions. Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning mckinsey. The thesis is about scenario planning which was an unknown method for me. Scenario planning 141 the exhibits in parts i and ii are reprinted with the kind permission of shell intemational petroleum. Scenario planning is a tool used by leaders to discover new strategic options for the future and to gain a deeper level of foresight than is typical in most strategic planning efforts. Scenario planning is not focused on the organization its. With managers struggling to figure out which businesses they should be in three months down the road, how could they possibly have time for scenario planning, which asks them to imagine alternative futures that might exist three, 10, even 25 years from now. A note on scenario planning 1 background scenario planning is a process that stimulates imaginative, creative thinking to better prepare an organization for the future.
While the approach has a long history, it burst into the news in 1973. Pdf this note introduces and describes scenario building, the. This document describes a 9phase process for scenario planning, and shows how to apply this process to a workshop environment. Armed with the right kind of information, select an appropriate strategyand execute it through savvy moves. In the last issue of hbr, the author described how he and a group of strategic planners at royal dutchshell began to put in place a most innovative way to prepare managers to think more clearly about the futurescenario analysis. Reassess your participation model to identify where best to compete, and repurpose your business model accordingly to identify how best to compete. Three decades of scenario planning in shell hbr store harvard. Wack described the development of some of the early scenarios in his article scenarios.
I recently discussed scenario analysis with a wellknown futurist. This is precisely why scenario planning can be so valuable. Scenario planning a tool for navigating strategic risk. Scenario planning reconsidered hbr store harvard business.
Garvin and lynne levesque describes the process, components, and detailed action steps involved in using scenario planning in any organization. Tool for strategic thinking case solution,scenario planning. Strategic foresight and scenario planning for the future why scenarios world is complex political, economic, social, technological, ecological future is uncertain critical uncertainties weak signals forecasts are wrong predetermined elements structure given, only variables are changing possibility vs probability space scenarios are needed global, specific. Scenario planning is part of a toolbox to help organizations examine their business, as well as their expectations and beliefs, in order to adapt to emerging conditions. Conway swinburne university of technology introduction strategic planning is about developing a plan to implement strategy. While a twohour exercise could never substitute for a fullbore, monthslong scenario planning activity, our experiment did get participants out of their usual frame of reference, opening their. Tool for strategic thinking case study solution, scenario planning. Given that most investments are irreversible, scenario planning can be. A wellcrafted scenario is, in essence, a new boxit can help a company look at its future from an entirely new perspective. What was required was not the application of a new formula for planning but rather a new vayof thinking. Physicians may find scenario planning intuitively appealing, and some will claim that they already do it. This process is a very important one, and we are going to provide you with some details of the process so that you can use it. An exercise to get your team thinking differently about. Prahalad and gary hamel wrote one of the most widely read hbr articles of all time, the core competence of the corporation.
Managing uncertainty harnessing the power of scenario. Scenario workshops were successfully used to scenario planning at british airwaysa case study develop and link strategies between levels within a department. A core feature in the oxford scenario planning approach is making a. Strategic planning at united parcel services case solution. Managing uncertainty harnessing the power of scenario planning.
Wack is retired head of the business environment division of the royal dutchshell group planning. Output from the marketing directors workshop was used to set the vision for the workshop for relationship marketing, the next level of man agement within the marketing department. Providing insight for impact scenario planning is a management tool that is designed to allow organizations to evaluate the efficacy of strategies, tactics, and plans under a range of possible future environments. First popularized by shell in the early 1970s, the approach should be a natural complement to other ways of developing strategyespecially when executives are as concerned about geopolitical dynamics as many are today. Scenario planning is a strategic planning tool or method for improving decision making against a background of possible future environments. Provides a vehicle for increased communication and shared learning. Instead of focusing on a single prediction extrapolated from.
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